Learning Goal: I’m working on a economics question and need guidance to help me

Learning Goal: I’m working on a economics question and need guidance to help me learn.Description and AssignmentFor this assignment you will work with the ‘covid data,’ which is a dataset on daily covid cases acrossAustralia’s states and territories, compiled by Covid Australia. I made some adjustments to the data, and alink to the working fifile in csv format will become available on Canvas. This csv fifile contains information onall states and territories, but for the purposes of this project, you will work with the NSW series only. Forthis part of the project, you should do the following:1. Using the series ranging from 6 June 2021 to 22 August 2021, fifit the linear trend, quadratic trend, cubictrend, and exponential trend models.2. Obtain the AIC measures of these models (important: to ensure that the AIC of the exponentialtrend model is comparable with those of the linear, quadratic, and cubic trend models, use the‘back-transformed residuals’ in the case of the exponential trend model, so that e∗t = yt yˆ∗t , whereyˆ∗t = exp(yˆt + σˆ2/2), and where yˆt are the fifitted values from the log-transformed exponential trendmodel, and σˆ2is the residual standard deviation of this model). For AIC, use this formula: AIC =ln(PTt=1 eˆ2t ) + 2k/T, where eˆt is the model residual in period t; k is the number of estimated parameters;and T is the length of the series used in the estimation.3. Based on these AIC measures, select the preferred model.Enter the AIC value of the preferred model as an answer to the second question ofthe online quiz of this assignment.4. Based on the parameter estimates of this preferred model and the information set up until and including22 August 2021, make forecasts for the subsequent seven days; obtain the one-to-seven-step-aheadforecast errors.5. Calculate a measure of RMSFE using these one-to-seven-step-ahead forecast errors; that is,qRMSF E = 17 P7j=1 e2T +j|T .assignment.
Requirements: 2000

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *